The cost that is already being paid
National estimates put the annual economic cost of gaps in early care and development in the tens of billions of dollars in lost earnings, productivity, and tax revenue. The often-cited $122 billion figure comes from a ReadyNation / Council for a Strong America estimate of the infant-and-toddler child-care crisis. It is an advocacy estimate with stated assumptions, not a measured national account, and it is about child care rather than about pedagogy.
Third-party estimate. Directionally useful, not a projection of this pilot's return.
Why single-lever reforms stall
Raising pay, adding devices, or changing a curriculum in isolation rarely changes how a system behaves, because the other parts of the system keep their old incentives. The pilot's design bet is coherence: families, funding, and guides aligned on one instructional aim — that a student can explain and defend a conclusion out loud.
Design argument, not evidence. Stated so it can be argued with.
What a sponsor is actually buying
Twelve months of operating capacity for a small cohort, with published costs, published assumptions, and published conditions under which we would stop. Not a claim about future labour markets, and not an equity story. If the falsifiers trip, a sponsor learns something specific for a defined amount of money.
Full budget and falsifiers live on the pilot operations page.