Human History Repeats Itself: And Then Forgets
Abstract. Human civilization's transition from small, creative communities to rigid, hierarchical agricultural societies created an anti-evolutionary trap that prioritizes conformity over individual intelligence. Consequently, humanity faces recurring cycles of societal collapse, culminating in a modern mega-civilization that offers three potential outcomes: extinction, bottleneck survival, or a Second Renaissance.
By KW Norton.
How Modern Civilizational Collapse Mirrors Earlier Collapses
If we could go back to Rome and experience the Great Fall, we might well notice human behavior that parallels our own, millennia later.
We think of ourselves as modern, just as the citizens of Rome considered themselves modern.
We think of ourselves as part of a very advanced and powerful civilization, as did our Roman counterparts.
We see our philosophical, spiritual and socioeconomic decline as a price to be paid for being so very special, as did the Romans back in the day.
And just as the Romans did, we believe our very advanced technology will save us from ourselves — fearing it won't, believing it will.
Watching alongside
Not Our Fault, But Ours to Repair
These repeated collapses, and the blind spot that lets us build the next civilization that will also collapse, are not our fault. They are still ours to repair. No one but the humans who build civilizations — all of us, and each of us — can fix it.
When I began writing about the collapse we are in the midst of, almost eight years ago, I thought maybe we could fix this. I did not recognize how fully blinded to the truth humanity is.
The blindness is so visible all around us, and at the same time so well hidden, that I assumed others would see the danger signs and act. Instead everyone seemed to double down on the very opinions and self-sabotaging behavior that led us into this mess.
Behavior which proved the point: we tend to be led to ruin by a rather simple evolutionary tendency to place survival over integrity or intelligence. To such an extent that we will chase a perceived survival by unintelligent methods, and avoid genuinely intelligent behavior we perceive to be unpopular with the group.
We behave somewhat like herd animals, but the closer pattern is the primate hierarchy our nearest genetic relatives follow. Genetic ancestry is by no means destiny. We seem, freely, to have chosen one of the most damaging social and cultural patterns available to us.
A Civilization Which Favors the Group Over the Individual
Damaging to us, whereas it was a real evolutionary plus for our ancient ancestors. Why damaging to us, and not to other primates?
Because the increased cognitive ability of humans required the unalienable rights of the individual to be in place, so that each person could act on an innate evolutionary creativity.
Humans developed large brains and became conscious enough to build real psycho-spiritual and psycho-social relationships, unlike our primate ancestors. We evolved the ability to build mental maps, and those maps extended cognition far enough that we could shape tools with our own hands.
Each tool extended our evolution into a sustained arc, and each arc led to further evolution and further tools. Tools and humans were on a sustained roll — new tool, new capacity, new tool again.
Because our primate ancestors did enjoy extended survival in hierarchical societies, they kept evolving into early versions of protohumans. Those protohumans developed increasing independence, supported by small groups, families and communities that enhanced survival. Inside those small groups an individual could develop higher capabilities, supported and encouraged by the flexibility of a small band.
For millions of years protohumans lived by advancing individual creativity and intelligence inside a living laboratory that supported both brain function and survival.
Twelve Thousand Years Ago
About 12,000 years ago a large change occurred. Following the last ice age, the Middle East warmed and some humans began developing agriculture. Agriculture changed literally everything, as humans settled into increasingly large city states devoted to growing grains, and began to believe there was safety in numbers.
There were several huge problems in this scenario.
- 01
Humans had already developed an intelligence that demanded individual creativity in order to function at all.
- 02
That creativity was not compatible with large bureaucratic systems — systems too inflexible to adapt to the demands of a vitally intelligent person.
- 03
Human thinking gradually became coordinated to what was good for the group rather than what was good for the individual.
- 04
As highly social beings, humans came to fear ostracism more than they loved their own thought.
- 05
Fear of living without a group became the prime mover of human psychology.
Civilizations grew into large hierarchies where dominant personalities took on the management of a large population and a large agricultural and herd food system. Decisions were made that supported a bureaucracy run by dominant individuals, and that supported a sprawling apparatus to manage herds, farmland, water and power.
Gradually the decisions worked against individual creative intelligence and favored the humans who supported the bureaucratic system.
There was never profound evidence that a large bureaucratic civilization offered enhanced survival, efficiency, productivity or evolutionary advantage. As civilization grew into a world-spanning mega-civilization, the evidence accumulating pointed the other way.
Humanity once faced uncertainty in small family and community groups. Now it faces uncertainty inside a mega-civilization that has in effect become an anti-evolutionary force.
Macro Hard and Micro Hard
Here we might borrow some terms from our most favored and wealthy creative citizens, and call the present arrangement a simultaneously macro hard and micro hard civilization.
Because it works against evolution at both scales, it falls to us to overcome not only our factory-style educations, our factory-style governance, our factory-style management and business models, but by now our factory-style brains and consciousness.
After all these millennia of believing our civilizations favored our survival, we now have reason to call that the greatest of untruths. Civilization after civilization fell to ruin because the unbalanced, top-heavy, Tower of Babel nature of it represented not evolution but devolution.
Three Wishes
1
Extinction
The blind spot holds all the way down. The civilization keeps rewarding conformity until the margin for error is gone.
2
Bottleneck
A small number come through and carry the pattern forward — including, most likely, the same blind spot, unless the thinking itself is repaired.
3
A Second Renaissance
Individual creative intelligence is restored as the unit of value, and the systems around it are rebuilt to be flexible enough to hold it.
There is a lesson or two here about human thinking, if only we could find it.
Status
The historical pattern of hierarchical collapse is well documented. The claim that a large bureaucratic civilization is anti-evolutionary — rather than merely inefficient — is an argued position, not a settled result. It would be weakened by evidence that individual creative output per person rises, rather than falls, with the scale and rigidity of the administering system.